Weakening market sentiment and U.S. tariffs on China drive reduction in PC and tablet demand
IDC Adjusts PC and Tablet Forecasts but Still Expects Commercial Demand to Provide Growth
Bryan Ma
bma@idc.com
+65 6829-7733
Ryan Reith
rreith@idc.com
+1 508-935-4301
Jitesh Ubrani
jubrani@idc.com
+1 416-873-0315
In the wake of the USA’s tariffs on China as well as a weakening market sentiment, mostly in the consumer space, IDC has reduced its traditional PC forecast in 2025 and beyond. Global PC volume is now expected to reach 273 million in 2025, still growing +3.7% over the prior year though this is a slight reduction from the prior forecast. Beyond 2025, IDC forecasts sub 1% growth each year through 2029 for the traditional PC market, due in part from volume stabilization following Windows 11 migration. Meanwhile, tablets are not expected to fare much better as shipments are anticipated to shrink 0.8% in 2025 to 143.3 million and the market faces a slight gradual decline, reaching 141.6 million units by the end of 2029 due mostly to consumer saturation.
“Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “However, the weakness amongst consumer demand is universal as macro issues persist. There are still some silver linings though: workstation volume should remain healthy, along with near-term tablet demand in China boosted by consumer subsidies.”
In addition to form factor-specific trends, the commercial space will be the main driver for the gains in 2025. Commercial PC volume (including Education PCs) grew 2% in 2024, driven by some large deals and modest Windows 11 migration volume. As shown in the table below, IDC expects commercial and school renewal projects to be the biggest driver for 2025. In keeping with past Windows PC refresh cycles, IDC expects firms to largely continue Windows 11 PC purchases through 2025, although budgets and other constraints will leave some to choose in-place upgrades or pay for extended Windows 10 support. AI PC purchases have faced hurdles since their launch, but IDC expects a more robust ecosystem to emerge by latter 2025, leading most new PCs to be GenAI-capable by 2026.
“In light of so many challenges around the world, Japan is a much-needed source of double-digit growth this year. Enterprises there as well as SMBs have been quickly replacing PCs in advance of the Windows 10 End Of Service in October,” says Bryan Ma, vice president of Devices Research. “Growth rates naturally come down next year, but at least there is still a large education project to absorb some of the landing.”
Worldwide Personal Computing Device Forecast by Segment, Shipments, Year-Over-Year Growth, and 2025-2029 CAGR (shipments in millions) |
|||||
Segment Category |
2025 Shipments |
2025/2024 Growth |
2029 Shipments |
2029/2028 Growth |
2025-2029 CAGR |
Commercial ex. Edu |
138.0 |
4.3% |
142.6 |
1.4% |
0.8% |
Education |
41.7 |
6.7% |
38.2 |
-0.1% |
-2.1% |
Consumer |
236.7 |
0.2% |
241.8 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
Total |
416.3 |
2.1% |
422.6 |
0.5% |
0.4% |
Source: IDC Worldwide Personal Computing Device Tracker, February 27, 2025 |
|||||
Notes:
- Traditional PCs include Desktops, Notebooks, and Workstations and do not include Tablets or x86 Servers.
- Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the company/brand under which they are sold.
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker gathers detailed market data in over 90 countries. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis among other data.
For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 or jkliem@idc.com.
About IDC Trackers
IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, company share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line query tools.
Click here to learn about IDC's full suite of data products and how you can leverage them to grow your business.
About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.
All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250226278424/en/
